The effect of uncertainty on organizational objectives, which could be either positive and / or negative (ISO 31000:2018). Risk is described as a ‘future event’, with its causes and its potential consequences. UNDP ERM is concerned with: • Institutional risk. Existing and emerging uncertainties that could facilitate or hinder the efficiency and effectiveness of core operations within the organization. • Programmatic risk. Existing and emerging uncertainties that could facilitate or hinder the realization of programme or project objectives. • Contextual risk. Existing and emerging uncertainties that could facilitate or hinder progress towards development priorities of a given society. ERM considers contextual risk when these external uncertainties also present institutional or programmatic risks. Note that some contextual risks may fall under established risk management practice and definitions that need to be considered (e.g. for climate and disaster risk).